My oustanding trades and forecasts

I don't apply any of that fundamental stuff to my trading. The news puts me to sleep. I just know, LT, the USD is about to smash everything in sight.


The fundamentals are changing towards risk of appetite on the long term, and the Euro is having tough times ahead. The latest macroeconomics developments from the last 10 days are laying foundation to see commodity ccys gaining value against jpy/eur.
ie
QE injection of 600B
US Republicans gaining seat in the senate
Euro affected by beginning of austerity measurements and politicians pushing in different directions
China fueling the global economy

IMO fundamental analysis is aligned with what you say, but commodity currencies might still gain value against the USD. Of course I can also be wrong.
I hope that we keep seeing positive reports from US.[/quote]

For what its worth, the guy that operates the website below provides a useful newsletter that combines fundamental analysis with technicals, its worth subscribing to (for free) and comes as a pdf in your inbox. He is only 20 years old which is the amazing part.


[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Daniel wrote:

JahDave wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:Now that the daily kijun has been hit at the 1.5975 level, I'm looking for a move back to the WS1 at 1.6089, then a strong return to the trip south from there. That move also included a spike through the WS2 at 1.5997, which was a continuation, as the WS1 was taken out with little effort.

4xpipcounter wrote:I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

Every currency pair I have looked at against the dollar is a corrective pattern and not an impulsive pattern. Although the down moves are strong, they are in three and seven waves which are corrective and not impulsive formations. I could of course be wrong on my analysis, but I am more than 90% sure I am correct. With that being said, I think if this final push higher against the USD does happen, then this will finally be the last one before a very large dollar rally begins. And by very large I mean in the 3 to 5 thousand pip range before another large pullback.

For what I understand of fundamental analysis the long term view (1-2 years) is aligned with what you say. Risk of appetite on the long term, and the Euro is having tough times ahead. The latest macroeconomics developments (QE injection of 600B, US Republicans gaining seat in the senate, Euro affected by beginning of austerity measurements and politicians pushing in different directions, China fueling the global economy) are laying foundation to see commodity ccys gaining value against jpy/eur for a while.
What I might argue is that commodity currencies might still gain value against the USD on the LT. Of course I can also be wrong.
I hope that we keep seeing positive reports from US.

Paul, Did you fall asleep yet?

4xpipcounter wrote:I don't apply any of that fundamental stuff to my trading. The news puts me to sleep. I just know, LT, the USD is about to smash everything in sight.

Don't worry boss, I won't post about fundamentals, I read once in a while but technical analysis is my stuff

4xpipcounter wrote:The daily started this move south, and it could be the daily that is going to end it. MS1 is 1.3688. That level or above it should contain this leg of the DOWN. 1.3847 is like putting on binoculars and looking across the living room. Radar? You better believe it! The WR1 at 1.3907 is also a likelihood. If that contains, then the next leg DOWN could bring a brand new low towards 1.3612.

FYI: I just got an email alert from joel over at FXCM on this pair: "long EURAUD 1.3725 FOR OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.3575". I would like you, be looking for a little lower on this thing to get long.

The peak at 1.3783 was disappointing, but I did say the dip was headed to 1.3612.

Sigma trader wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:The daily started this move south, and it could be the daily that is going to end it. MS1 is 1.3688. That level or above it should contain this leg of the DOWN. 1.3847 is like putting on binoculars and looking across the living room. Radar? You better believe it! The WR1 at 1.3907 is also a likelihood. If that contains, then the next leg DOWN could bring a brand new low towards 1.3612.

FYI: I just got an email alert from joel over at FXCM on this pair: "long EURAUD 1.3725 FOR OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.3575". I would like you, be looking for a little lower on this thing to get long.

I wrote, somewhere, that this pair was going to peak and then a reversal. We did get a reversal, of sorts, but it is still northbound, so I entered a long. It has its eyes on the weekly tenken at 83.11, so that is my TP.

I know I mentioned it somewhere, but there is a cluster event waiting at circa 1.3610. Between there and 1.3583 will be containment before we get the next ride UP.

In my original projection, I thought the top of the daily cloud would contain this monster. I was wrong. It is now at the bottom. It is also entering an S zone. .8433 is the DS3, but it is rare for a daily level to contain a MT drive. The 23.6% mark of YS1--YS2 is .8420.

I forgot to mention in that original quote that 81.27 was my entry. Price action was too lethargic, so I yook the trade out at the DR1 at 82.54 for +27 pips.

4xpipcounter wrote:I wrote, somewhere, that this pair was going to peak and then a reversal. We did get a reversal, of sorts, but it is still northbound, so I entered a long. It has its eyes on the weekly tenken at 83.11, so that is my TP.

This is an S&R entry. This is the type of entry that is I closed off the ichimoku cloud, and only plotted my S&R's, it would be obvious where it is headed. The WR1 is .9728. I did miss the entry that should have been much lower, but I'll stick take the pips. WR2 is .9847, which is my TP.

Price is being rejected at cluster R at the MR3 at 82.47, and the WP at 82.53. I would expect the next move of any value to be made to the WS1 at 81.55, and then the MR2 at 80.80.

4xpipcounter wrote:I don't apply any of that fundamental stuff to my trading. The news puts me to sleep. I just know, LT, the USD is about to smash everything in sight.


The fundamentals are changing towards risk of appetite on the long term, and the Euro is having tough times ahead. The latest macroeconomics developments from the last 10 days are laying foundation to see commodity ccys gaining value against jpy/eur.
ie
QE injection of 600B
US Republicans gaining seat in the senate
Euro affected by beginning of austerity measurements and politicians pushing in different directions
China fueling the global economy

IMO fundamental analysis is aligned with what you say, but commodity currencies might still gain value against the USD. Of course I can also be wrong.
I hope that we keep seeing positive reports from US.

[/quote]

After another day of charts to look at Paul, I think the reversal probably has begun.

Dave, I think the euro is getting tired. I'm not saying any major reversal is around the corner, but I will be surprised if it does not begin the London session moving up.

After another day of charts to look at Paul, I think the reversal probably has begun. [/quote]

What has unfolded today was as predictable as the forecast. The lowest dip was 1.3573 on a spike. Part of the cluster event was my MS2 at 1.3597. This was reached on a continuation through the MS1 at 1.3768. Because of the nature of that kind of move, we should see that point revisited.

4xpipcounter wrote:I know I mentioned it somewhere, but there is a cluster event waiting at circa 1.3610. Between there and 1.3583 will be containment before we get the next ride UP.

I closed the trade at 1.3847 on the EUR/CAD for +123 pips. A correction of this move is due as we head into the weekend, so it is a good time to take profits.
As things are looking, there is a possibility of taking a ride in reverse to 134.70 on the GBP/JPY. OTOH, 133.12 could also be containment. I'm being patient with it, because when it does get turned back around, the move is going to be huge. I also have plans to double up near an optimal peak.
The USD/CHF is behaving okay. I did say when I entered the position is was based solely on what I saw through the eyes of my S&R's, and that I may have entered a little late. We just got a bounce off the WR1, and the trip has resumed to the WR2.

Now that the point has been hit, the momentum of the move north diminished. This is only because of the strong R that the MS1 presents.Original conjecture was a possibility of a return to the DOWN from this point. I am looking to the WS2 as an even more viable entry at 1.3801.

4xpipcounter wrote:What has unfolded today was as predictable as the forecast. The lowest dip was 1.3573 on a spike. Part of the cluster event was my MS2 at 1.3597. This was reached on a continuation through the MS1 at 1.3768. Because of the nature of that kind of move, we should see that point revisited.

4xpipcounter wrote:I know I mentioned it somewhere, but there is a cluster event waiting at circa 1.3610. Between there and 1.3583 will be containment before we get the next ride UP.

4xpipcounter wrote:Dave, I think the euro is getting tired. I'm not saying any major reversal is around the corner, but I will be surprised if it does not begin the London session moving up.

After another day of charts to look at Paul, I think the reversal probably has begun.

[/quote]

I still think one more small high is possible, but I think that this uptrend is getting tired as you said, and we may not see one more high at this point.

When I mentioned the euro getting tired, I was referring to the reversal that already took place. In other words, this first leg of the DOWN is getting tired. I mentioned in a previous post we would get a reversal around 1.3610, which is a cluster S event. The dip actually took us to 1.3573, and so far the peak on the correction has been 1.3776.
Next strong support will be 1.3409, as we head to 1.3078. We may need a stronger correction than what we already witnessed. Back to 1.3920 would be okay. OTOH, we could get a straight shot to 1.3409, then we would get a move east for quite awhile.

JahDave wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:Dave, I think the euro is getting tired. I'm not saying any major reversal is around the corner, but I will be surprised if it does not begin the London session moving up.

After another day of charts to look at Paul, I think the reversal probably has begun.

I still think one more small high is possible, but I think that this uptrend is getting tired as you said, and we may not see one more high at this point.[/quote]

Paul,

It was fun to create this forum for you and other traders, I'm glad you enjoy it.
As per the email communication you should be able to fully manage this week pretty soon. If you or other members have questions, email me.

Cable is still trapped in a consolidative move under the top of the 4-hour cloud. I will not be satisfied with the prospect of a reversal back in the trend until at least this week's WR1 at 1.6207 is hit.

Hari says, "I want gold!" So, Hari gets gold.

1433.01, 1403.57, 1385.82, 1350.09, 1332.57, 1303.13

The predicted retreat happened on Friday for gold. A further move south is still expected. The weekly tenken at 1347.62 is on the radar. A further move to the WS2 could also ensue. There is also a possibility of the weekly kijun to be hit at 1290.50, but that level will, most likely, not get hit this week.

I mentioned in another post that a correctional move to 1.3920 would be okay. It is looking more likely. It is alos strong containment. It is the TK combo on the daily along with the mean. The pair is still OS.

Here's some possible trade opportunities I'm looking at:
EUR/CHF-- Short @ 1.3504. That is the WR1 circa +3 on the 4-hour, and is highly OB on the 4-hour.
EUR/JPY--Short @ 113.76. That is the WR1. In between +2 and +3 on the 4-hour, and very OB on the 4-hour.
GBP/CHF-- This pair I have an entry to go short @ 1.5927, which is the WR1 +3 on the 4-hour, and very OB on the 4-houe
EUR/AUD--Short @ 1.3941, which is the WR1-DR1 combo, +3 on the 4-hour, and OB on the 4-hour.

I closed this trade at .9815 for +41 pips, only to make room for the GBP/CHF entry. On the short, the GBP/CHF is a much better opportunity, so I took my pips and run.
The pair could still hit last wee's WR2 at .9847.

4xpipcounter wrote:This is an S&R entry. This is the type of entry that is I closed off the ichimoku cloud, and only plotted my S&R's, it would be obvious where it is headed. The WR1 is .9728. I did miss the entry that should have been much lower, but I'll stick take the pips. WR2 is .9847, which is my TP.

My view for this pair has not changed. We had a mild move south, and now a sronger move back north. We need 1.6207 to be hit, because it is a fresh WR, and the pair will become more OB, and it will add elasticity to the intraday bounce. If it keeps fooling around, then an even further correction will be needed. For now, though, that remains the view.

4xpipcounter wrote:Cable is still trapped in a consolidative move under the top of the 4-hour cloud. I will not be satisfied with the prospect of a reversal back in the trend until at least this week's WR1 at 1.6207 is hit.