My oustanding trades and forecasts

4xpipcounter wrote:This pair is about to make a correction. The WS1 is 1.6089, which should serve as containment. As I mentioned in an earlier post, which contained my MT--LT forecasts, this pair is ready to make a huge move downward, but it is not ready yet

As I checked with the sigma readings, they agree with the synopsis concerning my previous shorter term forecasts and this one. This is going to be a nice test for it, as it is a paid service. I've enjoyed them in the short time I've had them. My methodology has confirmed their accuracy up to this point. All that being said, the USD should be heading south on Tuesday.

I do agree with you there. The usd index missed it's mark by 1.5 points so I figure it must have one more move down. Also I said we are working on a very large Elliott Wave scale here, so when it does go it will be big. The retracement or pullback should be large as well. After that then all H*** should break loose to the downside and the dollar should have a huge rally.

Dave, the reversals may have already begun. They are looking really strong. I noticed on most of the pairs bounced off the forecasted points, but that is all that happened. It was only a mild bounce. The whole move UP on the part of the euro (at least to this point was only within the range of the weekly S&R's.

JahDave wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:This pair is about to make a correction. The WS1 is 1.6089, which should serve as containment. As I mentioned in an earlier post, which contained my MT--LT forecasts, this pair is ready to make a huge move downward, but it is not ready yet

As I checked with the sigma readings, they agree with the synopsis concerning my previous shorter term forecasts and this one. This is going to be a nice test for it, as it is a paid service. I've enjoyed them in the short time I've had them. My methodology has confirmed their accuracy up to this point. All that being said, the USD should be heading south on Tuesday.

I do agree with you there. The usd index missed it's mark by 1.5 points so I figure it must have one more move down. Also I said we are working on a very large Elliott Wave scale here, so when it does go it will be big. The retracement or pullback should be large as well. After that then all H*** should break loose to the downside and the dollar should have a huge rally.

I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

Well, well, finally living up to the name of this thread. I took the trade out at the MP at 1.6022 for +116 pips.

4xpipcounter wrote:I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

As per an e-mail I had gotten, I may have given a wrong implication with regards to the Hurst trading bands and standard deviations. The Hurst bands are a combination of a regression line,standard deviation band, and the bands have been "smoothed" over time in order to give the look more of a natural flow. They are also projectionary which gives an indicator of future price action. If there is a fresh curve in that TF, then that is a good indication of price reversal.

If the trader is looking for a pure form of a standard deviation, then it is the Bollinger Bands. If the setting is set on the default setting, then it will be 20/2. This means the mean is set to a 20 SMA, and the outer lines have a +/- 2 deviation from the mean, or is set to +/- 2 sigma.

My thinking is always outside the box, and it is a stereotype that says you cannot use the Bollinger bands as a standalone. When used correctly with other TF's, and even other settings, then the indicator can be used as a standalone.

A common rule with standard deviations is that only 5% of all the data ever hit +/-2 sigma, but that is a rule that is applied to data that is not dependent on each other. This has an MA plotted with, which means the final results of the candle are always co-dependent. The rule for co-dependent variables will be closer to 15%. The one constant is that once the extremities have been hit, there is always a gravitational pull back to the mean, which, when used right, makes for some nice trading opportunities.

I don't claim to be an expert along these lines, so I wouldn't mind hearing some additional input of knowledge base along these lines.

Now that the daily kijun has been hit at the 1.5975 level, I'm looking for a move back to the WS1 at 1.6089, then a strong return to the trip south from there. That move also included a spike through the WS2 at 1.5997, which was a continuation, as the WS1 was taken out with little effort.

4xpipcounter wrote:I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

This pair has been out of control, but it is also emblematic of he fact a new trend has begun.
This pair had a continuation through the WS1 at 1.3916, and then it took out my WS2 at 1.3799. I'm looking for a correction to around 1.3853. That level would represent the completion of the week's range from the low point at 1.3736. That's not to say it will not go higher, but that is certainly reasonable.

4xpipcounter wrote:Now that the daily kijun has been hit at the 1.5975 level, I'm looking for a move back to the WS1 at 1.6089, then a strong return to the trip south from there. That move also included a spike through the WS2 at 1.5997, which was a continuation, as the WS1 was taken out with little effort.

4xpipcounter wrote:I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

Every currency pair I have looked at against the dollar is a corrective pattern and not an impulsive pattern. Although the down moves are strong, they are in three and seven waves which are corrective and not impulsive formations. I could of course be wrong on my analysis, but I am more than 90% sure I am correct. With that being said, I think if this final push higher against the USD does happen, then this will finally be the last one before a very large dollar rally begins. And by very large I mean in the 3 to 5 thousand pip range before another large pullback.

No argument there, Dave. It's hard to see this not being impulsive with cable against the USD, but the rest, I see some additional room for a move against the USD. But then, I am not the impulsive move king. Yes, the all-seeing eyes of EW and IC.

JahDave wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:Now that the daily kijun has been hit at the 1.5975 level, I'm looking for a move back to the WS1 at 1.6089, then a strong return to the trip south from there. That move also included a spike through the WS2 at 1.5997, which was a continuation, as the WS1 was taken out with little effort.

4xpipcounter wrote:I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

Every currency pair I have looked at against the dollar is a corrective pattern and not an impulsive pattern. Although the down moves are strong, they are in three and seven waves which are corrective and not impulsive formations. I could of course be wrong on my analysis, but I am more than 90% sure I am correct. With that being said, I think if this final push higher against the USD does happen, then this will finally be the last one before a very large dollar rally begins. And by very large I mean in the 3 to 5 thousand pip range before another large pullback.

I went short on both-- the GBP/JPY at 130.57 with a TP at 129.99, and the AUD/USD at 1.0016. For the latter, .9730 is on the immediate radar, and there will be cluster support at .9930.

USD/JPY: The MR3 at 82.55 should be the trigger point for a short. Longer term, I believe the pair is priming up for that strong reversal north I have been talking about. For this pair, it only looks like a longer term correction.

GBP/USD: Originally, I thought this pair might be contained at the WS1 at 1.6089, which is also the bottom of a very bearish hourly cloud. It is taking on a different look as there are possibilities of a further move to the WP at 1.6182.

GBP/JPY: The MR2 is 132.53. The pair is also entering some very extreme territory for this leg of the recovery, which I was not counting on when I entered the trade. Look for a reversal soon.

I took out the Aussie at .9990 for +26 pips. It is preparing for an intraday reversal, so I will look for a more optimal entry point.
If current level does not contain for the GBP/JPY, then I will look to double up on my position at the WR2 at 133.21.

4xpipcounter wrote:I went short on both-- the GBP/JPY at 130.57 with a TP at 129.99, and the AUD/USD at 1.0016. For the latter, .9730 is on the immediate radar, and there will be cluster support at .9930.

This pair is currently camped around the MS3 at 1.3785. Momentum still seems to be pointing south. I am looking to go long at the WS3 at 1.3729.

I'm looking for the continuation to be complete at the WR2 at 82.67, and then the reversal should take us back to the WP at 81.23.

If price slips by the DS2 at 1.3636, then a strong cluster event awaits at circa 1.3610, which implies a very strong correction

I entered a long at 1.3732 as per the previous post. Now, I feel content with my positions, so it's time to take the rest of the day off.

4xpipcounter wrote:I entered a long at 1.3732 as per the previous post. Now, I feel content with my positions, so it's time to take the rest of the day off.

Nice. ive only brought my ipad on holiday not my laptop, couldnt resist but check in

have you figured out how to post charts? i was just wondering how EURNZD looks on the dailky chart, as i have my iphone with me so could still make trades!

It's a tough call. The 5-hour looks primed for a short at 1.7850, but momentum is going to turn on it. There appears to be better choices. Just my opinion.

Sigma trader wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:I entered a long at 1.3732 as per the previous post. Now, I feel content with my positions, so it's time to take the rest of the day off.

Nice. ive only brought my ipad on holiday not my laptop, couldnt resist but check in

have you figured out how to post charts? i was just wondering how EURNZD looks on the dailky chart, as i have my iphone with me so could still make trades!

4xpipcounter wrote:It's a tough call. The 5-hour looks primed for a short at 1.7850, but momentum is going to turn on it. There appears to be better choices. Just my opinion.

Sigma trader wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:I entered a long at 1.3732 as per the previous post. Now, I feel content with my positions, so it's time to take the rest of the day off.

Nice. ive only brought my ipad on holiday not my laptop, couldnt resist but check in

have you figured out how to post charts? i was just wondering how EURNZD looks on the dailky chart, as i have my iphone with me so could still make trades!

Test
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It did worked for me... this is what I do. Click icon# 15, browse for the picture, then select it, then click on "host it", then the next step is to use the middle option "image" by clicking on copy. The last step is to paste the link on the screen where I type the posts. When the post appears it hase a picture, not a link.

4xpipcounter wrote:No argument there, Dave. It's hard to see this not being impulsive with cable against the USD, but the rest, I see some additional room for a move against the USD. But then, I am not the impulsive move king. Yes, the all-seeing eyes of EW and IC.

JahDave wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:Now that the daily kijun has been hit at the 1.5975 level, I'm looking for a move back to the WS1 at 1.6089, then a strong return to the trip south from there. That move also included a spike through the WS2 at 1.5997, which was a continuation, as the WS1 was taken out with little effort.

4xpipcounter wrote:I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

Every currency pair I have looked at against the dollar is a corrective pattern and not an impulsive pattern. Although the down moves are strong, they are in three and seven waves which are corrective and not impulsive formations. I could of course be wrong on my analysis, but I am more than 90% sure I am correct. With that being said, I think if this final push higher against the USD does happen, then this will finally be the last one before a very large dollar rally begins. And by very large I mean in the 3 to 5 thousand pip range before another large pullback.

We shall see where this goes, but the first move up on the Eur five minute chart was in fact a five wave impulse(because wave 4 did not encroach into wave 1 territory). The only Elliott Wave option to not make new highs at this point would be a zig zag (which is a 5,3,5 pattern)that is a corrective pattern that would not make new highs. And to add to the probability of a new high, then this wave 2 was very shallow. This is unusual for a wave 2, because wave 2's are usually deep retracements.

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I hope I'm doing this right, but the chart is showing Swissy is headed south tonight.





It did worked for me... this is what I do. Click icon# 15, browse for the picture, then select it, then click on "host it", then the next step is to use the middle option "image" by clicking on copy. The last step is to paste the link on the screen where I type the posts. When the post appears it hase a picture, not a link. [/quote]

4xpipcounter wrote:I hope I'm doing this right, but the chart is showing Swissy is headed south tonight.





It did worked for me... this is what I do. Click icon# 15, browse for the picture, then select it, then click on "host it", then the next step is to use the middle option "image" by clicking on copy. The last step is to paste the link on the screen where I type the posts. When the post appears it hase a picture, not a link.

[/quote]

That is what I'm saying here. The USD has one more push lower, and then everyone will be amazed at the bounce............but if you don't get in on the first wave up then wait until wave two goes deep and then get in on the next wave up. Which will be a "C" wave or a "3" wave,,,,,,,I'm not sure which one yet,,,,,,,,,,but either one will be equally impressive.........

DAve, I was just looking at the cable chart, and it appears as if it is on its way to the MR2 / WR1 combination at 1.6275. I'm thinking that is the reversal area. But then the daily is suggesting I could be wrong as price moves agasint some strong momentum thereafter.

That is what I'm saying here. The USD has one more push lower, and then everyone will be amazed at the bounce............but if you don't get in on the first wave up then wait until wave two goes deep and then get in on the next wave up. Which will be a "C" wave or a "3" wave,,,,,,,I'm not sure which one yet,,,,,,,,,,but either one will be equally impressive.........[/quote]

4xpipcounter wrote:I hope I'm doing this right, but the chart is showing Swissy is headed south tonight.





It did worked for me... this is what I do. Click icon# 15, browse for the picture, then select it, then click on "host it", then the next step is to use the middle option "image" by clicking on copy. The last step is to paste the link on the screen where I type the posts. When the post appears it hase a picture, not a link.

[/quote]


You copied the path from your computer... you need copy and paste the address from the middle option after you click on host it. Post 19 in the general discussion should be all you need. You are almost there! by tonight you will be an expert and we will see tons of clouds... lol
I noticed that you are doing great in being able to moderate as well, good job.

JahDave wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:Now that the daily kijun has been hit at the 1.5975 level, I'm looking for a move back to the WS1 at 1.6089, then a strong return to the trip south from there. That move also included a spike through the WS2 at 1.5997, which was a continuation, as the WS1 was taken out with little effort.

4xpipcounter wrote:I tried to upload the image to show what I was talking about, but to no avail. I've been trying to figure it out for the last 30 minutes but to no avail. The 4-hour was showing a consolidative pattern underneath the MR1 at 1.6149 and the YP at 1.6163. What this means is it is getting ready for an explosive move south. This, effectively, puts the MP at 1.6022 on the radar, and ultimately the daily kijun at 1.5975. Through all this, I entered a short at 1.6138.

Every currency pair I have looked at against the dollar is a corrective pattern and not an impulsive pattern. Although the down moves are strong, they are in three and seven waves which are corrective and not impulsive formations. I could of course be wrong on my analysis, but I am more than 90% sure I am correct. With that being said, I think if this final push higher against the USD does happen, then this will finally be the last one before a very large dollar rally begins. And by very large I mean in the 3 to 5 thousand pip range before another large pullback.

For what I understand of fundamental analysis the long term view (1-2 years) is aligned with what you say. Risk of appetite on the long term, and the Euro is having tough times ahead. The latest macroeconomics developments (QE injection of 600B, US Republicans gaining seat in the senate, Euro affected by beginning of austerity measurements and politicians pushing in different directions, China fueling the global economy) are laying foundation to see commodity ccys gaining value against jpy/eur for a while.
What I might argue is that commodity currencies might still gain value against the USD on the LT. Of course I can also be wrong.
I hope that we keep seeing positive reports from US.

Paul, Did you fall asleep yet?