My oustanding trades and forecasts

I got some USD updates coming, hopefully before the weekend is over. For now, I am so sick I can't think straight. Talk to everyone when I am feeling better.

The pair has just completed a full recovery within the monthly cycle. MR2a is 1.4270, and MR1a is 1.4124. There was a strong spike below MR1a, but then my "a" levels are not quite as accurate. Price action has also hit the bottom of the hourly cloud. Stochastics is OS and curled. It all adds up to a return to the UP. I am long on it, but because of my sickness I left everyone in the fog with regards to my trades, so I'll just treat this trade as undocumented.

4xpipcounter wrote:The pair has just completed a full recovery within the monthly cycle. MR2a is 1.4270, and MR1a is 1.4124. There was a strong spike below MR1a, but then my "a" levels are not quite as accurate. Price action has also hit the bottom of the hourly cloud. Stochastics is OS and curled. It all adds up to a return to the UP. I am long on it, but because of my sickness I left everyone in the fog with regards to my trades, so I'll just treat this trade as undocumented.

get well soon 4x

Thanks Sigma.

I'm still not doing well, but the USD pairs look red hot for some reversals, so I wanted to pas on some of those projections, so here they are:

EUR/USD: Momentum is turning on all the TF's from the 8-hour up to the monthly. 1.4379 is +3 sigma on the weekly. 1.4331 is the YP. We should see the move south takes us to at least the YS1 at 1.3486. That is also the current level of the monthly kijun with the tenken still sharply divergent. That virtually puts 1.3486 on the radar.

USD/JPY: What can I say about this? No radars, no firm entry points. Just a continuous methodical drops down the hill. There is one level to keep your eye on, and that is 78.02. That level is the decade's S1. On the decade's, allow for some leeway. It's just the nature of the larger numbers. After all, 74.47 is the 23.6% mark of the S1—S2. What this adds up to is a strong reversal. This would only be a correction, but is should lead to 87.32 once the move begins.

GBP/USD: The +3 sigma on the monthly chart has already been hit. That is all you need to know that some explosive southern happiness is about to happen. The 23.6% mark of YP (1.6163) and the YR1 (1.7321) is 1.6463. I am looking for that circa area to be containment.

USD/CHF: Like most of the USD majors, this pair's momentum has reversed on the higher TF's. This pair still has room to move in the trend's direction. .9589 is the YS1, and that has not been hit yet, so it leads me to believe the DOWN is not over yet. It might be time to get serious about a long at that circa event. 1.0597 is the monthly tenken and the weekly kijun. It is also close to the bottom of the weekly cloud. 1.0597 is on the radar, but also look for that area to be strong R before any further move north.

AUD/USD: The YR1 is 1.0213. That would be an excellent point to go short. For this pair, that entry would make for at least a nice entry entry that will bag 100+ pips. That could also mean the beginning of a very strong reversal. This pair is flying along in ear-popping heights on the weekly chart. The topof the cloud is .8755. .9739 is the tenken, .9123 is the kijun, and the YP is .8974. At least the kijun is on the radar.

USD/CAD: Momentum has changed on the weekly and monthly, but there is still plenty of room for a move south. .9662 is the YS1. That could be a viable reversal. As all the reference points for the yearlies, they all make at least ST entries. The 4-hour is still showing a sharp DOWN, so it is hard to firmly assert a reversal point.

NZD/USD: .7932 is the 61.8% level of YP-YR1. We have had only a spike on the other side of it. The pair is indicating the reversal has begun. .7689 is on the radar, but w should see a move to .7490, and even lower than that.

R--1469.63, 1433.24, 1413.27
S--1373.33, 1353.36, 1316.97

Look for the WS1 at 1.3919 to contain this move.

4xpipcounter wrote:Thanks Sigma.

I'm still not doing well, but the USD pairs look red hot for some reversals, so I wanted to pas on some of those projections, so here they are:

EUR/USD: Momentum is turning on all the TF's from the 8-hour up to the monthly. 1.4379 is +3 sigma on the weekly. 1.4331 is the YP. We should see the move south takes us to at least the YS1 at 1.3486. That is also the current level of the monthly kijun with the tenken still sharply divergent. That virtually puts 1.3486 on the radar.

USD/JPY: What can I say about this? No radars, no firm entry points. Just a continuous methodical drops down the hill. There is one level to keep your eye on, and that is 78.02. That level is the decade's S1. On the decade's, allow for some leeway. It's just the nature of the larger numbers. After all, 74.47 is the 23.6% mark of the S1—S2. What this adds up to is a strong reversal. This would only be a correction, but is should lead to 87.32 once the move begins.

GBP/USD: The +3 sigma on the monthly chart has already been hit. That is all you need to know that some explosive southern happiness is about to happen. The 23.6% mark of YP (1.6163) and the YR1 (1.7321) is 1.6463. I am looking for that circa area to be containment.

USD/CHF: Like most of the USD majors, this pair's momentum has reversed on the higher TF's. This pair still has room to move in the trend's direction. .9589 is the YS1, and that has not been hit yet, so it leads me to believe the DOWN is not over yet. It might be time to get serious about a long at that circa event. 1.0597 is the monthly tenken and the weekly kijun. It is also close to the bottom of the weekly cloud. 1.0597 is on the radar, but also look for that area to be strong R before any further move north.

AUD/USD: The YR1 is 1.0213. That would be an excellent point to go short. For this pair, that entry would make for at least a nice entry entry that will bag 100+ pips. That could also mean the beginning of a very strong reversal. This pair is flying along in ear-popping heights on the weekly chart. The topof the cloud is .8755. .9739 is the tenken, .9123 is the kijun, and the YP is .8974. At least the kijun is on the radar.

USD/CAD: Momentum has changed on the weekly and monthly, but there is still plenty of room for a move south. .9662 is the YS1. That could be a viable reversal. As all the reference points for the yearlies, they all make at least ST entries. The 4-hour is still showing a sharp DOWN, so it is hard to firmly assert a reversal point.

NZD/USD: .7932 is the 61.8% level of YP-YR1. We have had only a spike on the other side of it. The pair is indicating the reversal has begun. .7689 is on the radar, but w should see a move to .7490, and even lower than that.

Paul, hope you get better soon, I need to give priority to other things for the next two or three days but you can reach me by email if you or anyone needs anything.

Now that my WS1 has been hit and the pair has been struggling around this point, recovery is now expected to at least 1.4086.

4xpipcounter wrote:Look for the WS1 at 1.3919 to contain this move.

We need an hourly close above 113.01 (WS1) in order to confirm a recovery to 113.86. We should get it. The pair was stopped dead in its tracks above the 4-hour cloud.

An hourly close above the tenken at .8636 is needed in order to confirm a move back to circa .8700. .8624 is the WS1.

Recovery back to at least cluster R at 1.3870 should be seen. 1.3961 is actually on the ST radar. There is so much R on the way, this is one time I'm questioning my radar. It is a clear shot to the aforementioned point.

After hitting my WS1 at 1.3949, it clearly puts 1.4100 on the radar. 1.4133 is also a viable target.

BTW, if it looks like I have become infatuated with the euro, it is only because it is where all the opportunities are. Of all the majors, the euro got hammered the most, and now it is saying, "It's now payday!"

I have a small interest in oil, because it is directly correlated to what I pay at the pump.It's not confirmed yet, but a temporary peak may have been formed. If that is the case, then a move to 83.31, and most likely lower will be seen.

This pair is about to make a correction. The WS1 is 1.6089, which should serve as containment. As I mentioned in an earlier post, which contained my MT--LT forecasts, this pair is ready to make a huge move downward, but it is not ready yet

As I checked with the sigma readings, they agree with the synopsis concerning my previous shorter term forecasts and this one. This is going to be a nice test for it, as it is a paid service. I've enjoyed them in the short time I've had them. My methodology has confirmed their accuracy up to this point. All that being said, the USD should be heading south on Tuesday.

This pair is stubborn. Rightfully so. It gave the appearance it was ready for an impulsive move south, and then a cursory glance at the 4-hour chart shows it went east. It has found its way back over the tenken, so the coast is clear for a move towards the YR1 at 1.0213. Again, that is the point I would be ready to go short. Everything form 4-hour up is OB, so it is ready to go. When it hits the YR1, all the lower TF's should join in.

I would like for the 4-hour kijun at .9685 to signal the short on this pair. Once again, the sigma bands look smoking hot. They point straight down, and sigma -3 is .9700, and dropping with every new candle.

I wish I could put my 10% on all these. Me and Tucker would be happy for days. Enough digression.
Sigma, looks like you picked a good time to take profits. By the time you got back from vacation, you might would have been disappointed. The 4-hour kijun at .7837 signals the move north. -3 sigma is .7830 with strong momentum pointing upward.

I have said it a lot about this pair. You can only think south concerning it. Now is no exception, especially as weak as the USD looks over the next 24-72 hours. 1.0057 is the WR1, and 1.0050 is sigma +3 with strong momentum straight down the hill. (I know I sound like a broken record.)

This pair is my my LT radar, but you'd need a map to follow it. As had been predicted, the pair peaked on its recent run north that started at 1.2765. This correction could be seen coming on the daily and is acting accordingly. It would almost have to touch the kijun, which is currently at 1.3491, and is strongly pointing downward. This current leg is looking at 1.3344-1.3286 before a sign comes of another reversal.

This pair has had its way on the daily chart since its recent peaks at .8817 and .8941. This leg should be history at the 76.4% mark of YP--YS1 at .8593. The MS1 will also be seen at .8597. The leg UP could also be very strong. It will bounce off the top of the daily cloud. It is nearing the daily -3 sigma. This could lead the pair to .9100 and beyond.

Today's low, 83.73 might be containment on the recent drop. The 4-hour kijun sen at 83.52 or the WS1 at 83.38 would be ideal for containment. If that is the case, then that might put the WR1 at 85.58 on the radar.

For the last 33 hourly candles, this pair has been heading east. It should be just about ready to break out of this consolidative event, make a left turn, and head north. If anything, it will be a minor move that will take it to the cluster R event at the top of the 4-hour cloud and the MP at 1.5765. Current price is camped at the -3 sigma on the 8-hour chart. If the 8-hour chart has its way, then we should see a move well beyond 1.5900.

4xpipcounter wrote:I wish I could put my 10% on all these. Me and Tucker would be happy for days. Enough digression.
Sigma, looks like you picked a good time to take profits. By the time you got back from vacation, you might would have been disappointed. The 4-hour kijun at .7837 signals the move north. -3 sigma is .7830 with strong momentum pointing upward.

thanks 4x. its a crazy currency the NZD. A classic example is today, it was helped lower because of a report saying the kiwi fruit industry will be hit because of some virus in the fruit! i had a good trade on that but i i had to take the negative carry on the trade (3 grand over the w/e!) buut i made much more than that on the pips, so all is good. I have a friend who has been short EURNZD for 6 months and he has cleaned up on the carry profits alone.

i'll be off for about 10 days weeks end, i may sneak a laptop with me to keep an eye on the markets!

hope you have recovered, weve missed your analysis.

Sigma, I appreciate yours and everyone else's concerns. I've had several e-mails in addition to what has been posted in our forum. Funny thing is I only wanted to say what is happening with me just so everyone would know I didn't just fall off the planet. Any rate, I made my Monday's trip to Springfield (long story). It will still be another 5 hours before I am back home, and I've been wishing most of the day I stayed home. I'm really under the weather and can't figure it out. I'm not too concerned. Like my trading, I have ice in my veins there too.

I like the carry money, but I don't get too caught up with it. The money I make from it usually pales by comparison to the actual profit on the trade. If I am negative the daily interest, then what I paid still pales by comparison to the overall gains.

I hope you have a good trip. Do you have anything special planned?

Sigma trader wrote:

4xpipcounter wrote:I wish I could put my 10% on all these. Me and Tucker would be happy for days. Enough digression.
Sigma, looks like you picked a good time to take profits. By the time you got back from vacation, you might would have been disappointed. The 4-hour kijun at .7837 signals the move north. -3 sigma is .7830 with strong momentum pointing upward.

thanks 4x. its a crazy currency the NZD. A classic example is today, it was helped lower because of a report saying the kiwi fruit industry will be hit because of some virus in the fruit! i had a good trade on that but i i had to take the negative carry on the trade (3 grand over the w/e!) buut i made much more than that on the pips, so all is good. I have a friend who has been short EURNZD for 6 months and he has cleaned up on the carry profits alone.

i'll be off for about 10 days weeks end, i may sneak a laptop with me to keep an eye on the markets!

hope you have recovered, weve missed your analysis.

The daily started this move south, and it could be the daily that is going to end it. MS1 is 1.3688. That level or above it should contain this leg of the DOWN. 1.3847 is like putting on binoculars and looking across the living room. Radar? You better believe it! The WR1 at 1.3907 is also a likelihood. If that contains, then the next leg DOWN could bring a brand new low towards 1.3612.